Rama
France has been thrust into another political storm following the dramatic defeat of Prime Minister François Bayrou in a confidence vote in the National Assembly.
Bayrou lost by a wide margin — 364 votes to 194 — forcing him to present his government’s resignation to President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday. According to the Elysée, Macron will decide on the path forward “in the coming days.”
The president faces three options: appointing a new centre-right prime minister, shifting left by seeking a figure acceptable to the Socialist Party, or dissolving parliament to trigger fresh elections.
Meanwhile, Macron’s fiercest opponents in the far-left France Unbowed movement are openly demanding that he himself step down, though political observers see that outcome as highly improbable.
With Bayrou’s defeat, France is set to see its fifth prime minister in less than two years, a troubling record that highlights both the instability and public disillusionment that have defined Macron’s second term. Bayrou’s downfall followed his decision to tie his government’s survival to an emergency confidence debate over the country’s soaring debt.
All summer he had warned of the “existential” dangers posed by France’s €3.4 trillion (£2.9 trillion) public liability. His 2026 budget blueprint sought to scrap two public holidays and freeze welfare and pension payments, measures aimed at saving €44 billion.
Yet Bayrou miscalculated if he believed that warnings of looming economic peril would bring opponents to his side. One by one, parties made clear that Monday’s vote was an occasion to deliver a blow not just to Bayrou but also to Macron.
Without a majority in the Assembly, Bayrou was left exposed as left-wing parties and the far-right united against him. His defeat was sealed.
Some analysts have likened his move to political self-destruction. There had been no immediate need to call such a vote, and he could have bought time to shore up support.
In his speech before the debate, Bayrou appeared less concerned with short-term politics than with his place in history, warning lawmakers that future generations would bear the cost if France lost financial sovereignty.
“Submission to debt is the same as submission to arms,” he told MPs, arguing that today’s borrowing levels meant “condemning young people to slavery.”
“You may have the power to bring down the government. But you cannot erase reality,” he declared.
Despite his stark words, few lawmakers seemed swayed. Both the left and the far-right accused Bayrou of deflecting blame from himself and Macron for France’s current economic state.
Nor did his arguments resonate strongly with the public. Surveys show that French citizens prioritize concerns such as the cost of living, immigration and security well above national debt.
Activist groups, meanwhile, are preparing to escalate opposition to Macron’s policies. A movement styling itself Bloquons Tout (“Let’s Block Everything”) has pledged sit-ins, boycotts and protests beginning Wednesday, while several trade unions have called demonstrations for 18 September.
Economists warn that France nonetheless faces daunting financial realities. Annual debt servicing costs, which stood at €30 billion in 2020, are forecast to exceed €100 billion by 2030.
Fiscal pressures are mounting even as Macron pledges more defence spending and opposition parties demand repeal of the pension reform that raised the retirement age to 64.
Bayrou had succeeded Michel Barnier in December after Barnier failed to pass his own budget in parliament. Bayrou managed to steer a budget through thanks to a fragile pact with the Socialists, but relations deteriorated when their demands were ignored during the most recent pension reform conference.
Speculation is now rife over Macron’s next move. Some argue he could pivot to the left, having already tried and failed with conservative Barnier and centrist Bayrou. Yet the Socialist Party has insisted on a complete break with Macron’s pro-business policies, along with a rollback of the pension reform — measures that would amount to dismantling Macron’s legacy.
For this reason, Macron is more likely to turn to figures from within his own camp. Names already circulating include Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu, Labour Minister Catherine Vautrin and Finance Minister Éric Lombard.
