Photo by Tom Fisk
Oil prices surged late Sunday as Wall Street responded for the first time to Saturday evening’s US airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities—marking a significant escalation in the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict.
US crude futures jumped by 2.7%, reaching approximately $75.80 per barrel as of 9:30 p.m. ET. Brent crude, the international benchmark, climbed 2.44% to $78.88 per barrel, reflecting growing market unease over potential disruptions to global energy supplies.
In contrast, US stock futures slumped following the military action. Dow Jones futures dropped 175 points, or 0.4%, while S&P 500 futures declined by the same margin. Nasdaq futures posted an even sharper decline of 0.5%, as investors grappled with the broader geopolitical implications of the strikes.
The US dollar strengthened by 0.3%, a move that reassured some investors after recent declines triggered by the Trump administration’s imposition of sweeping tariffs on foreign imports. Traditionally seen as a safe-haven asset during times of turmoil, the dollar’s rebound came amid ongoing debate over whether its resilience will hold under Trump’s “America First” economic doctrine.
Israeli equities, on the other hand, rallied on Sunday, buoyed by speculation that the US offensive might reduce the nuclear threat posed by Iran. The Tel Aviv 125 index rose 1.8% to close at 2,919.62, while the TA-35 advanced 1.5% to finish at a record high of 2,877.78.
The US currently produces about 13.4 million barrels of oil daily. While domestic crude stockpiles have grown by more than 200 million barrels since January and OPEC+ has announced plans to boost production, energy analysts remain wary of Iran’s potential response. A major concern centers on the Strait of Hormuz—a critical maritime chokepoint for global oil trade—which Tehran could target in retaliation.
Any move by Iran to close or disrupt the strait could have immediate consequences. More than 25% of the world’s seaborne oil shipments passed through the Strait of Hormuz during 2024 and early 2025, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration. The US alone imported roughly 500,000 barrels per day through the passage, making up 7% of its total crude and condensate imports.
Economists warn that any extended tension or retaliatory action could choke the flow of oil, driving prices even higher and placing upward pressure on inflation—posing fresh risks to the US economy at a time of fragile recovery.
