By kremlin.ru
Russian President Vladimir Putin has begun a pivotal two-day visit to India, where he will hold talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and take part in the countries’ annual summit. The high-profile trip is expected to produce several new agreements and comes at a time when US-India relations are strained, particularly over New Delhi’s continued purchase of Russian oil.
Putin’s visit also coincides with the Trump administration’s renewed diplomatic outreach to Russia and Ukraine, aimed at ending the ongoing war in Europe. Against this tense geopolitical backdrop, the India–Russia partnership—rooted in decades of political trust and defence cooperation—faces fresh scrutiny and heightened strategic importance.
Russia’s Stakes: Energy, Arms Sales and a Signal to the West
For the Kremlin, India remains one of its most crucial global partners. The numbers alone reveal why:
- India’s population approaches 1.5 billion people
- Its economy is expanding at over 8%, making it the world’s fastest-growing major economy
- India is the third-largest consumer of crude oil, providing Russia with a massive and reliable market
Before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, only 2.5% of India’s oil imports came from Moscow. After Western sanctions triggered deep discounts on Russian crude, that figure soared to 35%, allowing India to secure cheaper energy while helping Russia redirect supplies away from Europe.
The United States, however, has not been pleased. In October, the Trump administration imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, accusing New Delhi of indirectly financing Russia’s war by purchasing its oil. Indian orders for Russian crude have since declined, something Putin is expected to address in Delhi.
For Moscow, the visit also presents an opportunity to reinforce its longstanding role as India’s primary defence supplier. Reports indicate India is considering purchasing advanced Russian fighter jets and air-defense systems, including the Su-57 and the S-500. Meanwhile, Russia—facing a severe labour shortage—views India as a promising source of skilled workers.
Geopolitically, Putin’s appearance in India sends a clear message: Western efforts to isolate Russia have not succeeded. His frequent meetings with Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping project an image of unity among major non-Western powers committed to a “multi-polar world.”
While Russia proudly touts its “no limits partnership” with China, it is equally vocal about its “special and privileged strategic partnership” with India. This stands in stark contrast to the Kremlin’s broken relationship with the European Union.
Modi’s Balancing Act: Strategic Autonomy Under Pressure
Putin’s trip comes at a sensitive moment for Prime Minister Modi, as India navigates a complex diplomatic landscape shaped by tensions with Washington and expectations from Europe.
India’s ties with Russia date back to the Soviet era and have endured multiple global shifts. Modi has resisted Western pressure to condemn Moscow’s actions in Ukraine, insisting that dialogue—not isolation—is the only viable path toward peace. This stance is part of India’s long-standing commitment to strategic autonomy, balancing relations with major powers on its own terms.
But that balancing act is now far more difficult. With Donald Trump back in the White House, India-US relations have deteriorated, largely due to unresolved tariff disputes. At the same time, European allies are applying new pressure: ambassadors from Germany, France, and the UK recently published a rare joint article criticizing Russia’s war stance.
For Modi, the challenge is to demonstrate independence while preventing his growing partnership with Moscow from overshadowing vital economic and political ties with the US and Europe.
As the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) notes:
“India must protect strategic autonomy while navigating pressure from Washington and dependence on Moscow.”
Trade, Defence and the Push to Fix an Imbalanced Partnership
Despite the political warmth between the two countries, India-Russia trade has long underperformed. Their bilateral trade surged to $68.72 billion by March 2025—up from just $8.1 billion in 2020—primarily due to India’s purchase of discounted Russian oil. This has heavily skewed the trade balance in Moscow’s favour, something Modi hopes to correct.
With Indian refiners now reducing Russian oil imports to avoid US sanctions, both nations are exploring new avenues of cooperation.
Defence Cooperation: Necessary but Complicated
India’s imports of Russian defence equipment fell to 36% between 2020 and 2024, compared with 72% a decade earlier, reflecting New Delhi’s push for diversification and local manufacturing.
However, India remains deeply dependent on Russian hardware:
- Many of its 29 air force squadrons fly Russian-made Sukhoi-30 jets
- The S-400 air defence system played a critical role in India’s recent conflict with Pakistan
- Delhi is reportedly interested in Russia’s S-500 and Su-57 to counter Pakistan’s acquisition of China’s J-35 stealth fighter
Yet Russia faces its own constraints. Sanctions and the war have delayed delivery timelines, including for the S-400, some units of which are now expected only in 2026. Modi is likely to seek assurances from Putin on future deliveries.
Trade Diversification
Modi also wants greater market access for Indian goods in Russia. Despite strong diplomatic ties, Indian consumer products occupy a small share of Russian retail:
- Smartphones: $75.9 million
- Shrimp: $75.7 million
- Meat: $63 million
- Garments: $20.94 million
GTRI analysts argue that India must secure a stronger foothold in Russia’s post-war economy and reduce overreliance on oil and defence deals.
A Visit That Could Redefine Regional Geopolitics
Putin’s visit to Delhi is not a symbolic nod to the Cold War partnership. It represents a high-stakes negotiation over supply chains, risk mitigation, defence dependencies, and economic stability in an increasingly polarized world.
According to GTRI:
“A modest outcome will secure oil and defence. An ambitious one will reshape regional economics.”
For both leaders, the challenge is clear: strengthen bilateral ties without jeopardising crucial relationships elsewhere.
As Modi walks a delicate diplomatic tightrope and Putin seeks allies amid Western sanctions, the decisions made in Delhi this week could significantly influence the future of Asian geopolitics, energy security, and global power dynamics.
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