As military tensions between India and Pakistan flare over the disputed Kashmir region, security analysts and diplomats say China is uniquely positioned to harvest a vast trove of real-time intelligence, using the opportunity to refine its strategic understanding of India’s military capabilities.
With its advanced network of satellites, border surveillance posts, and expanding naval presence in the Indian Ocean, China is leveraging the conflict to monitor both Indian and Pakistani deployments, particularly observing Indian air and missile defense systems in action. Analysts believe the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) sees this as a “target of opportunity” involving a key strategic rival operating right on its doorstep.
“From an intelligence perspective, this is a rare target of opportunity right on China’s borders involving a key potential adversary,” said Alexander Neill, a Singapore-based security expert and adjunct fellow at the Pacific Forum in Hawaii.
Chinese Weapons in Pakistani Hands — A Battlefield Lab
Two U.S. officials have confirmed that Chinese-made J-10 fighter jets, operated by Pakistan’s air force, were involved in recent aerial engagements with Indian military aircraft. At least two Indian jets were reportedly shot down during the exchange, including one French-made Rafale — a centerpiece of India’s modern air fleet. India, however, has not acknowledged the loss of any aircraft.
Pakistan’s defense and foreign ministers have publicly confirmed the use of J-10 fighters in the conflict but have remained tight-lipped on the types of missiles or air-to-air weaponry deployed. This ambiguity adds further intrigue for global defense watchers and foreign intelligence services.
Security experts describe the ongoing combat as a rare real-world testbed for evaluating the effectiveness of cutting-edge fighter jets, pilot skill, and missile technology under live combat conditions — data that is otherwise difficult to acquire outside of wartime.
China’s Expanding Surveillance Arsenal
China’s intelligence and military apparatus has grown dramatically over the last decade. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) based in London, China currently operates 267 satellites, including 115 for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) purposes, and another 81 dedicated to monitoring military signals and electronic intelligence.
This space-based network, second only to that of the United States, gives Beijing powerful tools to track missile launches, aircraft movement, and command and control signals across the Indian subcontinent. Experts say China’s superior capabilities in space and electronic warfare now allow it to observe Indian activities as they happen in near real-time.
“Both in terms of space and missile tracking capabilities, China is much better off now in terms of being able to monitor things as they happen,” said Neill.
China’s Ministry of Defense did not respond to a Reuters request for comment regarding the deployment of its ISR satellites or its intelligence-gathering posture in relation to the India-Pakistan conflict.
Border, Space, and Sea: A Multi-Domain Advantage
Even beyond its satellite assets, China has fortified its presence on multiple fronts. Along the 3,800-kilometer Himalayan border it shares with India — a flashpoint that led to deadly clashes in 2020 and a war in 1962 — China has significantly modernized its surveillance infrastructure.
Despite the relative calm brought about by a new patrolling agreement reached in October 2024, both India and China have steadily enhanced their forward military bases, infrastructure, and supply chains in the high-altitude theater.
Meanwhile, the Chinese navy has stepped up its intelligence operations in the Indian Ocean. Open-source intelligence analysts have tracked the movement of space-tracking ships, research vessels, and coordinated fishing fleets — all reportedly performing dual-use functions.
In early May, over 220 Chinese fishing vessels were observed maneuvering in unison within 120 nautical miles of Indian naval exercises in the Arabian Sea, raising alarms among Indian defense planners. While these fleets are ostensibly civilian, analysts and Pentagon reports have long identified China’s fishing vessels as part of a “maritime militia” tasked with intelligence gathering.
“These vessels may double up as listening posts, tracking development rhythms and response patterns, feeding early warning, naval intel to their sponsors,” wrote open-source analyst Damien Symon in a widely shared post on social media platform X.
Chinese authorities rarely acknowledge the role of their fishing fleet in military activities and continue to deny that such vessels function as part of an intelligence network.
China-Pakistan Military Cooperation: An Intelligence Channel
China’s strategic partnership with Pakistan also gives Beijing indirect access to battlefield data. The PLA has long been involved in arms sales, joint exercises, and technology transfer with Islamabad — a relationship described by both nations as an “all-weather strategic cooperative partnership.”
Security experts believe that the Chinese military will benefit immensely from access to Pakistani telemetry data, weapons performance analytics, and after-action reports, particularly concerning Indian responses and readiness.
“The presence of Chinese military advisers and other personnel in Pakistan is well-known given how Pakistan’s Ministry of Defence has been importing some of its most advanced military hardware from China, so we can be certain the PLA would be able to access relevant data,” said James Char, a Chinese military specialist at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
Neither Pakistan’s military spokesperson nor its information ministry have responded to recent requests for comment on intelligence sharing with China.
India Downplays Concerns Over China-Pakistan Axis
India has remained publicly calm about China’s role in the ongoing conflict. When asked by Sky News about the China-Pakistan alliance, Indian High Commissioner to the UK Vikram Doraiswami said:
“China requires a relationship with all of its neighbours — that includes us. Their relationship with Pakistan is not a concern for India.”
Still, Indian strategic circles are increasingly aware that every movement — from missile launches to radar activity — is likely being observed by China’s intelligence networks in real time. Analysts say that any Indian use of its advanced BrahMos cruise missile would be of particular interest to China, as the weapon has not yet seen real combat deployment.
A Battlefield Echoing Beyond Borders
While India and Pakistan are the immediate belligerents in the ongoing conflict, the echoes of their confrontation extend far beyond South Asia. For China, the crisis offers a rare window into the tactics, technologies, and temperaments of a rival it may one day face directly in conflict.
As the dust continues to rise over Kashmir and the Indian Ocean, the world watches — and for China, every radar ping, missile trajectory, and radio burst is a potential clue in decoding India’s defenses.
