By Роман Наумов - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0,
Oil prices remained stable on Monday as investors sought clarity regarding negotiations aimed at concluding the conflict in Ukraine, while also considering the potential resumption of crude exports from northern Iraq. By 1103 GMT, Brent futures had increased by 13 cents, or 0.2 percent, reaching $74.56 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by 11 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $70.51.
Both Brent and WTI experienced declines of over $2 on Friday, resulting in weekly decreases of 0.4 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively. Attention continues to focus on the ongoing efforts to resolve Russia’s war in Ukraine, which marks its fourth year on Monday. Officials announced on Sunday that European Union leaders are scheduled to convene for an extraordinary summit on March 6 to deliberate on further support for Ukraine and security guarantees for Europe.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy expressed on Sunday his readiness to resign if it would lead to peace for his nation. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has commenced negotiations with Russia, excluding Ukraine and the European Union from the discussions. A high-ranking Russian diplomat indicated that Russian and US delegations are scheduled to convene for additional talks this week.
Sanctions enacted by the United States and the European Union on Russian oil exports have significantly affected maritime oil supply chains. However, the conclusion of the conflict in Ukraine may not lead to an increase in Russian oil availability in the market, as Russia is part of the OPEC+ alliance, which has implemented production restrictions. Nevertheless, Harry Tchilinguiran, the head of research at Onyx Capital Group, indicated that a reduction in geopolitical tensions could still result in lower oil prices.
In the short term, oil prices will be shaped by geopolitical events and announcements from the US government, according to Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of the New Delhi-based research firm SS WealthStreet. Additionally, analysts note that an anticipated rise in oil supply from Iraq is also exerting downward pressure on prices, although the timeline for the resumption of flows through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline remains uncertain. An official from the Iraqi oil ministry stated on Sunday that Iraq plans to export 185,000 barrels per day from the oilfields in Kurdistan once shipments through the pipeline are reinstated.
